Yes, this is just expected for any industry that is being affected by AI. I’ve been expressing these opinions since AI and especially as Bubble announced integrating AI into the platform. And do not just take my opinion on this as something to believe in, just look for statistics on how this is already playing out in real time in tech industry.
I watched a youtube video on the subject recently that shows data points that are concerning. Firstly, it is harder for recent college graduates to get a job in tech and other industries that often have entry level positions that AI is handling fine now. The numbers show that there are a greater percentage of new graduates without jobs, and there are less jobs being posted online for these entry level types of jobs.
Another worrying statistic is that there are around 34% less internships available in tech this year compared to last, which is the idea that, less internships is equal to less job offerings for entry level, which equates to less demand for the entry level worker.
Another thing to keep in mind is that currently, the jobs that are safer are those that are for more experienced roles. This means in regards to Bubble that
the idea of the top 1% of developers area safe is true, but that doesn’t equate to a trickle down effect of less experienced freelance developers still being in high demand. The jobs that are the safest right now, are those that are roles that require more experience and the person performing that job is incorporating AI in that role. What that means is even though they are safer, they are actually not, especially if there are not incorporating AI into their work.
AI for more experienced professionals, is speeding up their work, which means companies, whose work requirements remain equal, when an employee begins to increase productivity through AI, the company can lay off workers in the same role, since the AI assisted worker is 3x-5x faster at their job than they were in the past. In some instances that can be as much as 9 out of 10 employees being redundant.
How that plays out for even the most experienced Bubble developers? That means, they are able to if using AI, work faster. That means, they will start to be able to be more price competitive with one another. So, since, it might make them 3x faster than before AI, they can offer the same end product for 1/3 the cost and stay at the same HOURLY income rate. What that means is they would then need to 3x their number of client projects to complete, just so they can remain at the same ANNUAL income level.
How does that play out in the real world outside of the Bubble? That means, because it is happening right now, that even the more experienced roles are seeing some less available jobs, some layoffs and a stagnation or in some cases even reduction in Salary offered.
So back to Bubble. Even if the demand for Bubble projects remained the same, and the same number of Bubble apps are getting built, they will likely be getting built at a lower cost than in years previous since developers can build them faster. In the 3x faster scenario, that means with a steady demand for Bubble apps, there is only a need for 1/3 of the Bubble developers that exist today.
What I do think will happen in Bubble development for developers, is that Bubble may very well be able to 3x the number of clients coming to Bubble in need of a developer to build an app for them through their efforts with AI and Mobile. At least, I would hope all the time, effort and money put into both of those would provide for such an increase in paying users for Bubble.
If Bubble is able to generate more leads for projects, than I think experienced bubble developers are going to be able to retain their same annual income levels as years passed. But, I do not see newer or less experienced freelance developers being able to. Part of the reason is that due to AI in Bubble, a lot of projects may be requiring a more experienced developer because they can do what AI can not, but the AI likely can do what a less experienced “junior” developer can. There is most probably a way to still earn a decent income as a “junior” developer, and the chances would be greater if a “junior” developer tried to focus and niche on a particular theme and become an expert in that, rather than attempting to be a ‘jack of all trades’. What I’m talking about there is maybe specializing in a specific app type, or feature set. And they would need to be confident and capable of creating their own client funnel.
You are smart to be concerned with AI, everybody should be as it already is and will continue to impact people’s earning potentials and the way in which they are able to work.
Another horrifying issue related to the entry level job thing, is that in 10 years time, when the experienced professionals filling higher level roles start to exit the workforce, there will be a shortage of workers with enough experience to fill those roles, because all the entry level jobs are going away right now. That means for everybody who interacts with corporations will be worse off because the experience levels of all higher ups will be lower than in decades past, resulting in less innovation, lesser quality outputs and overall a real world situation everybody should be thinking about.